ACC AMC AMD APLE ARI CBL CIO DEA ENB FLCH Games GE GIS HUYA IJR Kevin Cavanagh LADR M MO MRVL OHI QQQ RIG ROKU SIRI SYMC TWTR VCLT VEA VER VOO VWO

Kevin’s ‘Triple Threat’ Portfolio: FY 2018 Review

Monthly S&P 500 Outlook For October 2018: An October Surprise?

A New Approach Ahead

In my portfolio introduction in Might 2018, I launched the primary part of my portfolio constructing plan which began in February 2017. This “base” included excessive yield REITs which provided me with round $5,000 in money dividends per yr. I contributed $65,000 to this part, choosing some high-risk, small-cap names (e.g., Metropolis Workplace REIT (CIO), Easterly Authorities Properties (DEA)), some high-risk, speculative names (e.g., CBL & Associates Properties (CBL), VEREIT (VER), Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR)), and usually at the very least what I thought-about best-in-breed names (e.g., Omega Healthcare Buyers (OHI), STAG Industrial (STAG), Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE), American Campus Communities (ACC)).

With this $65,000 base down, I seemed for tactics to increase and develop my portfolio outdoors of the REIT sector. I started to wrestle with a query that I think about most buyers face sooner or later: what number of particular person securities can I realistically maintain at any given time and nonetheless keep the extent of due diligence that I really feel is required?

One in every of my said hopes from the portfolio is that in the future it generates $150,000 in annualized dividends. I began doing basic math, and assuming a weighted dividend yield of 5% (which is being beneficiant), that might imply $Three,000,000 value of inventory. My common value foundation is $5,000 which might imply managing a portfolio of 600 shares. That doesn’t sound enjoyable or sensible.

This realization finally led me to query methods to handle this portfolio not simply within the brief time period however in the long run as properly. Whereas I admittedly was onerous on myself for not considering of this “problem” sooner, I’ve by no means been one to ruminate too lengthy when I’ve the self-awareness to repair the issue. Finally, this led me to the choice to make routine contributions into low-cost index funds. That may give me the perfect of each worlds: some actively managed inventory choosing and a passive investing part of the portfolio that may develop over time with the market.

Whereas the considered managing too many shares was the rationale I ended up wanting into establishing a base of index funds, I nonetheless had the time and curiosity to develop the person inventory portion of the portfolio as nicely. Given my bias in the direction of revenue era, promoting put choices to get into shares of curiosity and promoting coated calls as soon as in them felt like a pure part for me to discover. I turned extraordinarily as I started to do extra analysis, as this opened my eyes to the power commerce into higher-risk progress shares I had beforehand prevented. I started to increase my analysis horizons and constructed out my watchlist. I’ll assessment my 4Q 2018 choices motion later.

The Index Fund Part

Time Horizon: 35+ years (My age: 31, My spouse’s age: 28)

Danger Tolerance: Excessive

Goal Portfolio

US Equities: 70-80%

Worldwide Equities: 20-25%

Bonds: 5-10%

Portfolio as of 12-31-2018

US Equities: 72.87%

Worldwide Equities: 19.86%

Bonds: 7.27%

As a result of this text will function an introduction to this part, I’ll break it down a bit of greater than I’ll in future updates.

The Constructing Part

Constructing the index fund part took much more work than I assumed, as there have been many extra choices on the market than I noticed. I briefly thought-about 100% equities, however finally discovered a bond index fund that I appreciated within the Vanguard Lengthy-Time period Company Bond Index ETF (VCLT).

VCLT: The fund holds long-term investment-grade company bonds at a zero.07% expense ratio and distributes a month-to-month dividend. I ended up choosing VCLT over a extra generic bond selection just like the Vanguard Complete Bond Market ETF (BND) as a result of it correlates extra positively with the general market (Eight-year chart proven under). As a result of the fund holds company bonds, drops out there can influence VCLT extra so than a typical bond fund. For the long run, I view VCLT as a pleasant Four.5% month-to-month participant that may make up 5-10% of this portion of the portfolio. I anticipate to purchase 2 shares of the fund a month going ahead.

(Supply: StockCharts.com)

US Equities: I ended up choosing the the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), and the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) because the funds to make up this portion.

VOO: Wants no introduction. For the novice in me, I nonetheless researched if there was a “correct” S&P 500 fund to get into. Apart from choosing VOO/IVV over SPY, it appears the whole lot else is equal. I ended up going with Vanguard’s VOO as I picked different Vanguard funds.

QQQ: Having a heavy know-how publicity is one thing I would like for the subsequent 35 years. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) make up roughly 32% of the QQQ, whereas they solely make up 10% of VOO. QQQ finally beat out the Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares ETF (QQQE) and the First Belief Nasdaq-100 Ex-Tech Sector Index ETF (QQXT), because it was market cap-weighted somewhat than equal cap-weighted. The 10-year annualized return for all was additionally a consideration. For these questioning, 19.20% for QQQ, 17.65% for QQQE, and 15.70% for QQXT. All percentages are based mostly on 12/28/2018 closing.

IJR: This fund tracks a market cap-weighted index of small-cap US shares. The 600 shares that make up the fund characterize about Three% of the obtainable market. I picked IJR over the SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY) and the Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (VIOO) as a result of it was the identical actual factor with a decrease expense ratio. The actual determination appeared to be IJR versus IWM. IJR tracks shares which are ranked 901-1500 in market cap, whereas IWM tracks shares which might be ranked 1001-3000 (also called Russell 2000). The thought course of right here was merely that IJR had extra established corporations within the pool, and I wasn’t positive if the extra corporations inside IWM was value the additional danger. I did some analysis and located that IJR has outperformed IWM on the Three-year (Eight.22% to six.28%), 5-year (5.95% to Four.16%), and 10-year (13.89% to 12.35%) benchmarks. All percentages are based mostly on 12/28/2018 closing.

(Supply: StockCharts.com)

Worldwide Equities: I ended up choosing the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA), the Vanguard FTSE Rising Markets ETF (VWO), and the Franklin FTSE China ETF (FLCH) because the funds to make up this portion.

VEA and VWO appeared probably fairly commonplace choices to realize publicity to developed and rising markets, respectively. As appeared to all the time be the case, there have been Three-Four others that did the very same factor however charged extra and had worse efficiency. EFA (Blackrock’s Developed Markets Fund) had a zero.32% expense ratio in comparison with zero.07% for Vanguard, whereas additionally underperforming the 10-year benchmark, 6.20% – 6.41%. All percentages are based mostly on 12/28/2018 closing.

I did discover myself questioning if worldwide publicity was actually wanted and/or useful. Check out the final eight years of VOO, QQQ, IJR, VEA, and VWO:

(Supply: StockCharts.com)

I did some additional analysis past this chart and came upon that from 2005 to 2008’s peak, VWO went up 125%, in comparison with SPY’s 25% return in the identical time interval. So, there have been occasions when worldwide markets have tremendously outperformed. I additionally discovered enhanced yield in VEA (Three.37%) and VWO (2.90%) in comparison with VOO (2.08%), QQQ (zero.92%), and IJR (1.59%). I might like to have a dialogue within the feedback about how others deal (or don’t) with worldwide publicity, because it was one thing I went forwards and backwards on.

Lastly, FLCH. I needed long-term publicity to the Chinese language market that has fallen 30% this yr. I’m extraordinarily bullish on Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Alibaba (BABA), and thought of shopping for particular person positions in October. Quite than go in that course, FLCH stood out as a brand new (lower than 1-year-old) ETF with a particularly low expense ratio (zero.19%) to provide me publicity to each shares and the Chinese language market normally. Tencent and Alibaba make up roughly 27% of FLCH. 38% of the fund is in know-how and 30% is in financials. I should be extra aware of this ETF, since it’s so new. The quantity in FLCH is mild, which results in awkward shopping for at occasions.

Accumulating Positions

Because of Robinhood, I’ve been capable of purchase into these ETFs slowly quite than bounce in suddenly. This allowed me to cost-average in in the course of the slumps in October, November, and December. Right here is the place the index fund portfolio stands as of now:

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

The Particular person Inventory Choice

Time Horizon: For REITs, 5+ years. For non-REIT shares, lower than 5 years. Whereas each are topic to altering fundamentals and efficiency, that is the overall expectation.

My objective when beginning this part was merely including REITs that paid a excessive dividend (which I took in money) which I assumed have been sustainable for the long run. Once I first began, I didn’t think about the corporate’s monitor report in rising the dividend almost as a lot I ought to have. If I do find yourself rebalancing the REIT portion, I’ll search for dividend stability and progress.

In This fall, I began promoting places and calls on non-REIT shares to department away from being so targeted on one sector. Whereas I’ve loved promoting places and coated calls, it does imply that my time horizon for a few of the shares could possibly be shorter, which has made me assume more durable about exit costs. Thus, usually, I might stamp the REIT “base” as a secure, long-term dedication, whereas my different positions you will notice under might find yourself being short-term or long-term relying on my entry/exit methods.

That is additionally why I’ve stamped the portfolio because the “triple threat” (e.g., index funds, REIT base, and put/name choices). Everybody wants a cool portfolio identify.

Portfolio Purchase/Promote Motion Since Final Replace (08/17/2018)

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

Apollo Business Actual Property Finance (ARI) Scorecard

Purchased 285 ARI at $17.54 on 02/07/2017

Bought 285 ARI at $18.50 on 10/25/2018

Brokerage Charges: $13.95

Realized Achieve/Loss: +$259.65 (+5.18%)

Money Dividends Collected: +$786.60

Complete Achieve/Loss: +$1046.25 (+20.87% // 11.80% annualized)

Transocean (RIG) Scorecard

Entry: $zero.10 Put Choice ($7) on 12/21/2018

Exit: $zero.08 Coated Name Choice ($7) on 12/28/2018

Brokerage Charges: $zero

Realized Achieve/Loss: $18 (+2.57% // 134% Annualized – distorted, 7-day commerce)

Promoting out of ARI got here right down to the truth that I additionally personal LADR, so I used to be awkwardly hanging on to an excessive amount of business actual property publicity. Sure, I understand the irony of claiming that given the complete portfolio (was) REITs. LADR and different ARI rivals (Blackstone Mortgage Belief (BXMT)) are additionally delivering thrilling quarter after thrilling quarter, elevating the dividend, and freely giving particular dividends. I used to be rising more and more involved that ARI might quickly minimize the dividend, as administration stated in June 2018 they have been “going to look at it closely” within the months forward. All this in a yr they’ve document mortgage originations. I’m additionally very bearish on New York actual property (the place ARI is predominantly situated) over the subsequent three years.

General, I took in a 20.87% achieve (together with the dividends) in a bit beneath 2 years. Whereas I by no means thought-about monitoring my inventory efficiency towards the S&P 500 once I began in 2017, it’s one thing that I perceive somewhat extra about now. Utilizing my trusty S&P 500 calculator, from February 2017 via October 2018, the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends was up 24.53%. So, whereas a achieve in ARI, a slight underperformance there.

RIG was a short-term commerce, as I continued to discover choices buying and selling (extra on that shortly).

Let’s pivot and try the present holdings of this portfolio and verify in on them.

The Present Inventory Portfolio

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

Prior Divs = Dividends acquired previous to 2018.

I’ll present commentary on the non-REIT additions within the subsequent part.

December 15th was the day the underside fell out for almost all of this portfolio. At some point prior, the portfolio was a sea of inexperienced, up 2.5% and hanging on to positive aspects for the yr. REITs and utilities ended up being the final sectors to fall on December 15th, turning the spreadsheet an unsightly purple colour on a day your complete portfolio dropped by $Four,000.

Relating to particular securities, CBL continues to massively disappoint. I’ve touched on my choice to carry it in my final replace in order to not spend an excessive amount of time on it right here. Maybe this funding is exposing a serious weak spot I’ve – not figuring out when to promote a inventory deep within the pink. There is part of me that also feels the decline right here is grossly overdone. It should sit right here for now. I think about an enormous chunk of my $1088 dividends in CBL this yr is coming again to me as a return of capital for tax functions, and that may scale back my general value foundation. CBL offered a small return of capital final yr.

LADR continues to impress me. Administration actually appears to be taking all the suitable steps to compete in a aggressive area. Twice this yr, the corporate has raised capital by issuing new fairness, misplaced Three-Four%, and twice the inventory recovered inside Four-5 buying and selling days. I proceed to be bullish on LADR shifting into 2019.

OHI has additionally continued to be an enormous celebrity. I’m most , with tenant points seemingly resolved if the corporate will resume enhancing the dividend because it did for therefore lengthy (I purchased OHI the quarter earlier than it paused the dividend hikes.)

Here’s a snapshot of how all of the REIT shares have carried out since my final replace on August 17th:

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

The Choices Part

Time Horizon: Typically, lower than 5 years.

Preliminary Funding: $20,000

Focused Allocation: Roughly 50% on Three+% dividend payers. Roughly 50% on riskier names I see progress potential in.

I’ve experimented with promoting put and name choices at numerous lengths starting from one week to seven weeks. Whereas the one-week choices have been useful throughout a risky 4Q and made attainable by Robinhood, I feel Three-Four-week time horizons can be extra my velocity going ahead simply from my very own time availability. Listed here are my put/name choices tips I’ve for the portfolio, in addition to some real-life examples from this previous quarter:

Dividend Shares

Entry: Three-Four% decrease than the place it presently trades, with a 1-2% premium acquired (12-24% annualized).

Larger Danger, Progress Shares

Entry: 7-10% decrease than the place it at present trades, with a 1-2% premium acquired (12-24% annualized).

To be clear, I’m not simply throwing a dart at shares and making an attempt to get in at a low worth. After performing some due diligence on Common Mills (GIS), I picked $40 as an entry worth as a result of that represented a Four.9% dividend yield and a inventory that traded at 12x ahead earnings.

Listed here are some instance trades to showcase the rules set above:

11/26/2018, GIS was buying and selling at $42.38. I bought a $40 put for $zero.50 expiring on 12/21/2018.

5.61% draw back safety for 1.25% return (18.26% annualized)

12/11/2018, ROKU was buying and selling at $37.19. I bought a $34 put for $zero.34 expiring on 12/14/2018.

Eight.57% draw back safety for 1.00% return (annualized determine distorted – solely Four days)

My choices trades since October have included quite a lot of names in quite a lot of industries.

Among the many Three%+ dividend gamers: Altria (MO), GIS, AMC Leisure Holdings (AMC), Macy’s (M), and Enbridge (ENB).

Among the many “riskier” names: Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), Symantec (SYMC), Common Electrical (GE), Roku (ROKU), Twitter (TWTR), Huya Broadcasting (HUYA), Superior Micro Units (AMD), Marvell Know-how Group (MRVL), and RIG.

SYMC and SIRI have been assigned to me after the downturn in October. MO was assigned to me at $60, after it dropped like a rock from $65 to $53 on the again of some information from the FDA. GIS dropped from $44 to $37 throughout December. ROKU additionally fell to me in the course of the December downturn. To respect everybody’s time, I’ll all the time speak much less concerning the choices that expired and somewhat extra concerning the exercised shares by giving a fast funding thesis and worth goal.

SIRI: I’m bullish on the Pandora merger. I consider the inventory is undervalued at my entry at $6. It has misplaced a Pandora’s value of market cap since saying the merger. My goal worth for the inventory is $7.75. I’ll promote coated calls at $6.50 / $7.00 for some additional premium. I’ve added $70 in coated calls since proudly owning the inventory. The very best analyst estimate on the Road is $Eight.00.

SYMC: I’m bullish on the know-how safety sector typically. I consider SYMC is best-in-breed in that sector. I used to be barely involved about their lack of cellular presence however was completely happy to study concerning the acquisition of an organization that does simply that. I feel the drop from $29 to $19 in a day on an audit investigation was loopy. My goal worth for the inventory is $30. I’ll promote coated calls at $23+ for some additional premium. I’ve added $36 in coated calls since proudly owning the inventory.

MO: I’m bullish on the corporate administration. I needed so as to add corporations to the portfolio I felt have been undervalued and prepared for the subsequent recession. MO ended up being one of many main names I appreciated for that. The inventory has fallen exhausting on FDA information and hefty acquisition costs. Whereas I’ve been promoting coated calls on SIRI and SYMC, I’m much less possible to try this right here, as MO’s dividend progress has been nice and (extra importantly) it’s to date under my entry worth, it’s not value it till it recovers nearer to my entry.

GIS: Recession-proof with a 5% yield at my entry worth. The corporate’s debt load appears manageable based mostly on free money move. Whereas I do assume it overpaid for Blue Buffalo, I respect its efforts to develop. Based mostly on forecasts from administration, I feel the dividend ought to resume progress in 2020. I’ll promote month-to-month coated calls on this in 2019 beginning at $42.50-45.

ROKU: The riskiest of the names. Merely put, I consider it’s the way forward for TV. Whereas I’m aware that my beliefs concerning the future don’t essentially justify a great inventory, I feel firm administration has actually delivered each quarter since coming public. Going to $77 was approach too far, too quick, and I’m completely happy to have gotten it the place I did. I do plan to promote month-to-month calls on this identify. Due to its excessive progress potential, I can get a a lot greater strike worth for my desired 1% premium. ROKU presently trades round $31, and the January 25th $40.5 name is at present going for $zero.40. I’ll in all probability look to execute that on the primary buying and selling day of 2019.

The General Portfolio

Three remaining tables to summarize every part. First, the general efficiency damaged down by yr:

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

Dividends and choices premiums in 4Q propelled the portfolio to outperform the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (-Three.78% to -Four.38%), though that is hardly a victory lap. I proceed to study lots about myself and my very own biases two years into investing. I’m excited for 2019.

Second, the dividend and choices 2018 recap:

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

Pink: Inventory bought.

Grey: Didn’t personal the inventory these months.

And eventually, the anticipated dividend outlook in 2019:

(Supply: Writer’s Chart)

2019 Outlook

Whereas I’m “in the red” my first two years out there, I’ve discovered lots. Dropping 5.39% in 2017 (a yr by which the S&P 500 gained 21.83%) was my very own inexperience, as I obtained my ft moist. I consider I solely owned 6 shares in complete, with $10,000 / $35,000 being given to CBL. In 2018, the portfolio misplaced Three.78% (with dividends and choices premiums) and the S&P misplaced Four.38% (adjusted for dividends)

For 2019, I’m carrying $Eight,300 in money into the brand new yr. I might anticipate one other $11,000 in contributions in 2019 from my “side gigs”, which can take the portfolio contributions to $100,000. The $4600 in anticipated dividends will stay within the account. My recreation plan in the intervening time is to construct the index funds portion as much as a way more substantial and significant portion of the portfolio.

One factor I’m being aware of just isn’t being caught flat-footed in a hypothetical full-fledged bear market with no money to place to work. I nonetheless assume the S&P 500 ends 2019 nearer to 2700 (+Eight% from the shut of this yr). 2350 is a degree that values the S&P 500 at a 14.5 a number of with zero% progress in 2019. That’s a “worst-case scenario” valuation, in my eyes. I feel China-US tensions will get resolved in a smaller deal than POTUS needed however will nonetheless permit him to say “victory”. That, in and of itself, ought to push the market larger.

I am nonetheless curious as to how others deal with “cash” for potential bear market downturns. I might think about some people getting ready for a bear market however then it does not come.

Lastly, my spouse and I are planning on shopping for our first home, and we now have been stockpiling money for a 40% down cost. So, the contributions to the account in 2019 are more likely to be a lot lower than in 2018 and 2017.

Monitoring My Portfolio Progress

Listed here are all of my portfolio updates up to now within the occasion anybody is fascinated by how the portfolio has been formed over time. I’ll (in time) ultimately depart the final Eight quarters right here.

2018: 1Q // 2Q // 3Q and 4Q (this text)

Disclosure: I’m/we’re lengthy VOO, QQQ, IJR, VEA, VWO, FLCH, VCLT, OHI, LADR, STAG, MO, ACC, CIO, ARCC, VER, IRM, APLE, DEA, GIS, ROKU, SIRI, CBL, SYMC. I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. I’m not receiving compensation for it (aside from from Looking for Alpha). I’ve no enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.

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